Zebby Matthews made his 2024 debut in front of 663 fans at Rise 2 Greatness Field. Although the name of the Cedar Rapids Kernels’ home stadium comes from a local foundation, Matthews seems to have taken that as an order. On August 13, he completed his meteoric rise and made his MLB debut in front of 25,000 fans at Target Field. The young right-hander also seemed ready for the moment, throwing 5 solid innings, striking out 5 and allowing just 2 ER against a Royals lineup full of tough outs.
Matthews answered a call that night that the Twins will make many times over the final month and a half of the season. With Joe Ryan recently joining fellow rotation member Chris Paddack on the IL, the Twins will see an influx of young players in their rotation behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. Don’t worry, Matthews and fellow youngsters David Festa and Louie Varland are not lambs being sent to the slaughter. The Twins have high hopes for their respective futures, but the future has come quicker than most expected.
Twins fans will certainly be wondering how viable this new rotation can be as the team looks to finish the season strong and secure another playoff appearance. Fears may be especially high as the failure to strengthen the rotation by the deadline is still in the rearview mirror. Historical precedent paints a mixed picture of the success that can be expected from a young starting rotation, adding to the uncertainty.
Twins fans of a certain age will, of course, remember the rotation full of 20-year-olds that helped the club win its second World Series title in 1991 (and knowing many of those fans personally, they’ll also tell you that Pablo Lopez is no Jack Morris). Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson in particular played important roles, despite having a combined 55 major league appearances entering the season. Those who’ve only seen these two play on grainy YouTube videos will instead point to recent Mariners teams or this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates as teams that relied heavily on young pitchers and were well rewarded for it. Of course, someone more sadistic than me could probably recite a long list of teams that pinned their hopes on young starting pitchers and were regularly kicked in the teeth for it; I’m going to opt for optimism this time.
Given the convoluted history, the best way to predict the future of the Twins’ rotation is to take a sober look at its current state. Again, there are reasons for both optimism and skepticism. The trio of Varland, Festa and Matthews have thrived in the upper minor leagues this season, and Festa and Matthews are slowly finding spots in the back of national top-100 prospect lists. However, Varland and Festa have experienced significant ups and downs in their limited experience in the major leagues, and Matthews is a complete unknown at the highest level. Additionally, all three were drafted in late rounds, which represents a major achievement for the Twins’ player development but also leaves nervous Twins fans wondering if an early foray into the major leagues will abruptly halt their growth.
Even if all three pitchers exceed expectations and end up being successful, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Pete Maki will soon have to contend with the health of their young arms. First, all three pitchers are still trying to adjust to the strain of major league play, and in the meantime, 4- or 5-inning starts are increasingly becoming the norm. Unfortunately, whether your starter is 25 or 45, your team will still have to pitch all 9 innings. Therefore, the Twins’ bullpen will face an additional burden at a time when arms are already fatigued from a long season.
Should the Twins achieve their goal of making the playoffs, they will face a whole new set of challenges. While all three pitchers deserve credit for the composure they have shown on the MLB mounds thus far, the playoff atmosphere is a whole different mental challenge (think of the 80-fold crowd Zebby Matthews faced at Rise 2 Greatness Field). Additionally, the trio of young pitchers would be playing against opponents on a scale they have never experienced before, and mid-game adjustments are a trait usually attributed to experience.
However optimistic you may be, there’s no denying that this pressure on the Twins is only making the playoffs more difficult. Of course, that’s not Varland, Festa, or Matthews’ fault. The Twins’ front office had a chance to strengthen at the trade deadline and decided to bet on what it had. That those bets shifted to much less proven players is unfortunate, but not unpredictable. Then again, each of these young men had to step up and pitch at some point, and all three have dynamics that could help them finish the season strong. Everyone in the organization has preached faith in this trio, but that’s easy to do when they’re honing their craft away from spotlights and cameras. These young men have now been thrown into the fire of an MLB championship chase. How they handle the heat will be a major factor determining the Twins’ ultimate fate.
This article was originally published on my personal blog “Northern Platitudes”.
