Who could get it this year?

Drake hasn’t had much to do with the Video Music Awards in recent years—his last major appearance at the awards was in 2016, when he presented the Video Vanguard to his frequent collaborator (and rumored ex) Rihanna. Still, Drake’s history as a music video icon over the past 15 years is undeniable—and after all the negative momentum he’s built up after coming out on top in hip-hop’s biggest argument of the decade, perhaps the longtime master of changing the conversation would jump at the chance to remind the pop world what a legendary hitmaker he really is.

Post Malone is still fairly new to the category, and his success isn’t necessarily tied to his music videos—as evidenced by the only Video Music Award he’s ever won, which was in a song category (Song of the Year for “Rockstar” in 2018). Nonetheless, he’s a reliable VMA performer, has a decade’s worth of hits under his belt, and will be promoting a new album: one that’s already produced one of the biggest hits of his career in the Hot 100-topping Morgan Wallen song “I Had Some Help.”

Bruno Mars is a four-time VMA winner with a string of unforgettable videos throughout his nearly 15-year career as a preeminent pop hitmaker—not to mention his reputation as one of the best artists of his time. The only problem? Bruno takes a long time between promotional cycles, and he was pretty absent from pop culture in the three years following the release of his and Anderson .Paak’s successful 2021 An evening with Silk Sonic Team building. But rumors suggest he’s got a new big collaboration with Lady Gaga on the way, so maybe his return to the spotlight isn’t as far away as we think.

Speaking of expected returns, The Weeknd has begun to announce a new project that will presumably be the final part of a trilogy that began earlier this decade with his After work And Radio and television stations Sets. The Weeknd has both the hits and the recognizable video presence to justify the price tag — not to mention a clear lifelong adoration for the superstar who gives him his name — so perhaps it’s just a question of whether he’s ready to usher in his next era in time for the VMAs next month.

It’s been a decade since Miley took center stage at the VMAs as a pop star—she delivered the show’s most controversial performance of the decade alongside Robin Thicke in 2013, won video of the year for “Wrecking Ball” in 2014 and hosted the awards show herself in 2015—and last year she returned with the biggest pop hit of her career in “Flowers.” It seems only a matter of time before Cyrus wins it, but aside from a victory lap with “Flowers” at this year’s Grammys, she’s mostly stayed away from public appearances recently, so it’s unclear if it would be her turn in 2024.

Usher has practically already accepted flowers in 2024, not only the coveted halftime headlining slot for a career-spanning performance at Super Bowl LVIII, but also the Lifetime Achievement Award at the BET Awards and an all-star tribute medley performance. It would only make sense for the VMAs to follow suit—Usher was one of MTV’s most reliable stars from the late ’90s to the mid-’10s—but perhaps after so much celebration for Mr. Raymond in the first half of the year, MTV will take a different path come September.

It’s almost unbelievable that Eminem – one of the most enduring superstars of the past 25 years and a 13-time winner at the VMAs (including two Video of the Year for Moonpeople) – has yet to take home the Video Vanguard, even though his presence at the show has been sporadic at best since his 2000s peak. But if there was ever a year for him, it’s 2024 – when he’ll be back not only with a new chart-topping album, but also recalling his early Slim Shady days when he was a regular at the VMAs. If anything, though, Eminem may be a victim of his own recent success here: He’s already nominated six times this year (mostly for his popular “Houdini” clip), so MTV might see that as incentive enough for him to attend and/or perform this year without also giving him a lifetime achievement award.

It almost makes too much sense: Katy Perry will release a new album in September that seems geared towards returning to the mega-pop she dominated in the early 2010s – when she was one of the most unmissable artists in the MTV galaxy, with four or five stunning music videos per album (including one that Teenage dreams “Firework,” which won 2011 Home Video of the Year). There could be no better stage for them to remind pop fans why they’re still hoping for their comeback than the VMAs, with a performance that ranges from the breakthrough hit “I Kissed a Girl” to this year’s return of “Woman’s World.”